The New Orleans Saints are coming off of a huge 38 - 3 victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They pulled off that win in convincing fashion in their first underdog game of the season. Now, we may not see New Orleans as an underdog again for a while. the Saints are giving up between 9 and 10 points to the 49ers this weekend. After a dominating performance on Sunday Night Football by the Saints and a litany of injuries for the San Francisco 49ers, such a large spread may not be a surprise.
Straight Up: San Francisco (+325), New Orleans (-385)
Against the Spread: San Francisco (+9), New Orleans (-9)
O/U: o49 (-110), u49 (-110)
This week, New Orleans is one of only two teams favored by double-digit points. Let’s dig in and see what recent outcomes tell us about the Saints covering such a large spread, the history between these two familiar competitors, and an interesting prop based on San Francisco’s QB situation.
Blessed and Highly Favored
New Orleans has been favored by 9 or more points 35 times since 2006. In those games they are a wildly successful 25-10 straight up. Meanwhile, they’re 4-2 in the six games they were favored by exactly 9 points. In those 35 games, the Saints are a modest 15-20 against the spread however. It’s a big task to cover any two-score line, of course.
However, this time around the Saints will be matching up with an accomplished defense that simply has too many injuries. In this game, they’ll be without DLs Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, and Ziggy Ansah as well as DBs Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams, and Jaquiski Tartt. Meaning the Saints offense, which looked unstoppable against a healthy Bucs unit, should be able to pile on points. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense is hampered as well without QB Jimmy Garappolo, TE George Kittle, RB Raheem Mostert, and WR Deebo Samuel among others.
So, the situation may feel like it’s place for the Saints to cover but when you look at the history between the two teams,
Vs. the San Francisco 49ers
This will be the largest spread during the 2006-2020 time frame for a matchup between these two teams. The previous highest was a 7-point spread in favor of the Saints in 2006. Since that year, the Saints are 6-3 straight up and 4-5 against the spread. The Saints have surprisingly fared better on the road in these games. 3-3 at home, but a perfect 3-0 at the Niners. Up until last year, though, the Saints hadn’t dropped a game to the five-time Super Bowl champions since 2014. Last year’s barn-burner at home culminated in a 48-46 home loss, but the Saints look like they should have more control over this matchup. At least on paper. At home, New Orleans is only 2-4 against the spread against their former NFC West rival.
On an individual level, Drew Brees has been very successful against the 49ers in his nine games against them as a Saint. Brees has averaged 297 passing yards per game against them and has totaled 25 touchdowns to 9 interceptions in those games as well.
Brees’ top target in these games has been WR Michael Thomas who overages 103.5 yard per game and has three touchdowns in his two contests against San Francisco while averaging eight catches in each game.
Our friends at Sports Betting Dime put together an interesting prop for us. What are the chances that the 49ers would go on to sign Colin Kaepernick after this game? It would be a wild move considering all of the history between these two franchises. Not to mention the tumultuous situation with the NFL. But an interesting prospect nonetheless. As of now, those odds are slim. But without Jimmy G and another loss under Nick Mullens, perhaps a turn to the unexpected could be warranted. Remember, the Saints brought in Antonio Brown for a workout late last season. Of course, the Saints’ season was still very much alive. With a loss on Sunday, the road to the playoffs grows dimmer for San Francisco.
ODDS THE 49ERS RESIGN KAEPERNICK AFTER SUNDAY: 75/1
Brees Passing Yards: 282.5
Brees Passing TDs: 2.0
Kamara Yards from Scrimmage: 112.5
Thomas Total Targets: 8.5
Thomas Total Receptions: 6.5
Mullens Passing Yards: 263.5
Mullens Passing TDs: 1.5
Mullens Passing Completions: 22.5
Saints Sacks: 2.5
49ers Turnovers: 1.5
ODDS TO SCORE FIRST TD OF THE GAME
Kamara: 6/1 (+600)
McKinnon: 7/1 (+700)
Thomas: 11/1 (+1100)
Cook: 11/1 (+1100)
Murray: 13/1 (+1300)
Samuel: 13/1 (+1300)
Sanders: 141 (+1400)
Aiyuk: 15/1 (+1500)
FIELD: 5/2 (+250)
ODDS TO HAVE MOST RUSHING YARDS
Kamara: 4/5 (-125)
McKinnon: 9/4 (+225)
Murray: 25/4 (+625)
ODDS TO GET FIRST INTERCEPTION
M. Williams: 8/1 (+900)
M. Jenkins: 10/1 (+1000)
J. Jenkins: 10/1 (+1100)
M. Lattimore: 12/1 (+1300)
E. Moseley: 24/1 (+2400)
J. Taylor: 29/1 (+2900)
J. Verrett: 32/1 (+3200)
No INTs: 4/1
What did you think of the Saints’ win? Let us know in the comments. Make sure you follow Canal Street Chronicles on Twitter at @SaintsCSC , “Like” us on Facebook at Canal Street Chronicles, and make sure you’re subscribed to our new YouTube channel. As always, you can follow me on Twitter @RossJacksonNOLA and subscribe to my daily Saints podcast, Locked On Saints.