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Super Bowl LVI Odds: There Is A New Sheriff in Town

It is a Bills world right now, while Saints remain on the cusp.

NFL: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The exciting part about this exercise is that we can follow the ups and downs of our beloved Saints throughout the regular season via the variations of their odds not only to make it to the Super Bowl, but first to even make it to the playoffs, win the NFC South, or earn a first round bye in the playoffs.

My favorite website to look at Super Bowl odds throughout the regular season is Five Thirty Eight (FTE). They use the well-oiled Elo rating system. The system was invented by physicist Arpad Elo, and originally designed to rate players in zero-sum games, like chess. The system assigns a gain value to the winner and a loss value to the loser such that the sum of the winner’s gain and the loser’s loss is equal to zero.

Let’s look at the standings:


The Top 10

Ranks 1-10 NFL Week 5 Super Bowl Odds, Courtesy of Five Thirty Eight / Click to Enlarge

We have a new sheriff in town, folks! The Buffalo Bills arrived on their high horse and bullied the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead last Sunday night. Josh Allen and the Bills look every bit the favorite to make it to Super Bowl LVI right now, and the odds agree. Despite their loss, the Chiefs remained in the top 10, but just barely. the Saints’ divisional foes Buccaneers are still up there in second place.


The Muddled Middle

Ranks 11-22 NFL Week 5 Super Bowl Odds, Courtesy of Five Thirty Eight / Click to Enlarge

The New Orleans Saints continue to be right on the cusp of the top 10, coming in at the 11th position with 3% odds of making it to the Super Bowl. With a 58% chance of making the playoffs, it looks like despite the loss of Drew Brees and some impact starters from last season like Trey Hendrickson, Sean Payton and his team are poised to make a fifth consecutive trip to the postseason, and a chance to compete for the Lombardi. Are some of you still pinching yourselves that the postseason in New Orleans is now just a given every year? What a time to be a Saints’ fan.


The Bottom 10

Ranks 23-32 NFL Week 5 Super Bowl Odds, Courtesy of Five Thirty Eight / Click to Enlarge

At the back of the classroom with all the troublemakers, we still have our favorite punchbags, the Atlanta Falcons. Despite a win against the lowly New York Jets, Atlanta comes in with the 26th odds of making it to SoFi Stadium in February, and just an 11% chance to make it out of the NFC South and into the playoffs. Bringing up the rear are the fighting Urban Meyers of Jacksonville and the kneecap-biting Detroit Lions who are competing for the right to pick first overall in next year’s NFL draft. Some things never change.


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