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Super Bowl LVI Odds: Saints Continue Their Yo-Yo Game

Win one, lose one, rinse and repeat.

NFL: New York Giants at New Orleans Saints Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The exciting part about this exercise is that we can follow the ups and downs of our beloved Saints throughout the regular season via the variations of their odds not only to make it to the Super Bowl, but first to even make it to the playoffs, win the NFC South, or earn a first round bye in the playoffs.

My favorite website to look at Super Bowl odds throughout the regular season is Five Thirty Eight (FTE). They use the well-oiled Elo rating system. The system was invented by physicist Arpad Elo, and originally designed to rate players in zero-sum games, like chess. The system assigns a gain value to the winner and a loss value to the loser such that the sum of the winner’s gain and the loser’s loss is equal to zero.

Let’s look at the standings:


The Top 10

Ranks 1-10 NFL Week 4 Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Five Thirty Eight / Click to enlarge

Atop the rankings for odds of winning Super Bowl LVI, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have taken over the place that the Los Angeles Rams occupied last week. The aforementioned Rams tumbled all the way from first to seventh after getting pummeled at home by the Arizona Cardinals, who jumped from eighth to fifth after the win. Did you notice something? The Dallas Cowboys who were 13th last week are now in the top 10, as their early season success continues. But, as a famed ESPN anchor often likes to say: we’ve only just begun!


The Muddled Middle

Ranks 11-22 NFL Week 4 Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Five Thirty Eight / Click to enlarge

In the soft belly of the beast is where we find your New Orleans Saints, 12th position. After their gut-wrenching loss to the New York Giants, the Saints interestingly dropped only one spot, from 11th last week, while their odds of winning the big game went down from 4% to only 3%. The Carolina Panthers remained in 16th, with their odds unchanged at 2%. In this tier, we also find the Saints’ next opponent, the Washington Football Team, at the 21st position. The Football Team, at 2-2 like the Saints, faces a much steeper climb to win the NFC East, which is led by the streaking Cowboys.


The Bottom 10

Ranks 23-32 NFL Week 4 Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Five Thirty Eight / Click to enlarge

At the back of the classroom with all the troublemakers, we find the Saints’ favorite enemies, the Atlanta Falcons, who come in at the 28th position. The Birdies dropped one spot from 27th after losing to the Football Team 34-30 at home last Sunday. The New England Patriots are also in this tier. Welcome to a brand new NFL world, Pats fans!


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