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Super Bowl LVI Odds: Rise of the Saints

Saints make big jump in odds of making it to SoFi Stadium in February

Green Bay Packers v New Orleans Saints
 Juwan Johnson #83 of the New Orleans Saints makes a reception for a touchdown
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Yes, it is far too early to start talking Super Bowl, but it is still fun when your team is 1-0 and you’re already dreaming of confetti and parades right?

The exciting part about this exercise is that we can follow the ups and downs of our beloved Saints throughout the regular season via the variations of their odds not only to make it to the Super Bowl, but first to even make it to the playoffs, win the NFC South, or earn a first round bye in the playoffs.

My favorite website to look at Super Bowl odds throughout the regular season is Five Thirty Eight (FTE). They use the well-oiled Elo rating system. The system was invented by physicist Arpad Elo, and originally designed to rate players in zero-sum games, like chess. The system assigns a gain value to the winner and a loss value to the loser such that the sum of the winner’s gain and the loser’s loss is equal to zero. Let’s take for instance the Saints’ win over the Packers: the FTE Elo system assigned New Orleans a +38 gain value to their rating, while Green Bay’s rating was assigned a -38 value. The actual number gained or lost is based on several factors such as the pre-game rating difference between the two opponents, as well as whether the higher rated participant or the lower rated participant won the game.

Let’s look at the standings:


The Top 10

Ranks 1-10 NFL Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Five Thirty Eight / Click to enlarge

Yes, one week into the 2021-22 NFL regular season, your New Orleans Saints have the third-highest odds to make it to Super Bowl LVI, at 12%. The Saints’ Elo rating jumped +38, the biggest increase of all the teams in the top 10, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers at +33 after their win over the Buffalo Bills.

Atop the NFL’s Super Bowl odds are the Kansas City Chiefs (13%), tied with New Orleans’ NFC South foes Tampa Bay Bucs (13%). Despite their losses in week one, the Bills (6th), Packers (7th) and Ravens (8th) remained in the top 10.


The Muddled Middle

Ranks 11-22 NFL Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Five Thirty Eight / Click to enlarge

In the soft midsection of the NFL Super Bowl odds after week one, the most notable team is the once dominant New England Patriots who occupy the 20th spot, just ahead of the hapless Chicago Bears. How the mighty have fallen...after one week.


The Bottom 10

Ranks 23-32 NFL Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Five Thirty Eight / Click to enlarge

At the back of the classroom with all the troublemakers we find the Saints’ next opponent, the Carolina Panthers who come in at number 25, with 0.6% odds. As the final NFC South team, the Atlanta Falcons are 28th with 0.4% odds of making it to Super Bowl LVI.

There you have it ladies and gents, see you next week when all these rankings will change after week two results. Until then have fun, if you drink don’t drive, and as always: Who Dat!


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Poll

What do you make of the Saints having the 3rd-best odds to make it to the Super Bowl?

  • 46%
    Properly rated, they looked impressive in week one.
    (60 votes)
  • 26%
    Overrated, the Packers aren’t as great as we thought.
    (35 votes)
  • 13%
    Underrated, they had the best win of week one.
    (18 votes)
  • 13%
    A double bacon cheeseburger is always highly rated in my book
    (17 votes)
130 votes total Vote Now