Well, a .500 week is not the end of the world. It’s almost like wagering on the Packers and Texans is a bad idea, especially the same week. Luckily, the scrappy Browns held on so the week was not totally wasted. In the wild card pick, Marcus Mariota and the Falcons learned to throw a pass, putting us in the winning tally.
This week let’s not get too cute. There are good teams playing bad teams. Good, and experienced, teams cover totals. Thanks to our friends over at DraftKings Sportsbook for the following lines. These are the best bets for week 8 of the NFL regular season.
NFL Week 8 best bets
Season tally: 9-11-1
Tennessee Titans(-2.5) at Houston Texans
This goes against one of the rules of NFL game lines. Usually, divisional games are always much closer than they should be. That rule does not apply to the Texans though. The Titans have won four straight games by an average of five points. This includes two big wins against the Indianapolis Colts. As for the Texans, they have lost two of their last three by 24 total points. This just appears to be two organizations going in opposite directions now that teams have begun separating themselves. The latest trends signifies that the Titans will likely win by more than three points.
Arizona Cardinals(+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Cardinals are at the bottom of the NFC West while the Vikings are at the top of the NFC North. This line might look like a slam dunk for the Vikings if just comparing records, but that is why we are here to dig into the numbers. The Cardinals have lost to the Chiefs, Rams, Eagles, and Seahawks. Three of these teams are winning their respective divisions. Meanwhile, the only good team that the Vikings have beaten is the Dolphins who were on their third string quarterback. This should be a much more even matchup than the strict records dictate. In that case, always take the points, especially if they are above three. Take the Cardinals the points this week.
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills(-11)
Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, cannot be fooled again. The Green Bay Packers might be bad. They have lost to the New York Giants, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders in three straight weeks. Do they get a better matchup this week? Negative. They must now road trip to Buffalo to take on a Bills team coming off of a bye. This is maybe the most dangerous home team in the NFL as well. In just two home games this season, the Bills have outscored opponents 79 to just 10. If the math is correct, that is an average of 34.5 points scored per game more than their opponent. The 11 looks small compared to these other two. Take the Bills at home.
Wild card pick of the week
Season tally: 4-3-0
DraftKings sportsbook has a section for team props each week. Each game has a line for things like total touchdowns and team points. This week, the game with the highest possible outcome in scoring is the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions. The Lions are having one of the worst defensive years in NFL history so far, and that is not likely to change this week against a Dolphins team that is getting healthier. DraftKings has longshot odds on the Dolphins scoring four or more touchdowns this week. These touchdowns can be in any form. On the season, the Lions have given up four or more touchdowns in four of their first six games. They have given up at least two in every game so far as well. This seems like a game where the Dolphins can get the offense back on track. Take the Over 3.5 total touchdowns on the Miami Dolphins this week.