One of the most heated rivalries in the NFL is here. Although many in the other divisions might forget about the NFC South, games between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons have always played a little harder than others. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers do not have any matchup in the division as heated as games between these two teams. This is the first matchup for these two teams this season but expect both to have NFC South divisional title consequences. Each week, CSC will preview and highlight some wagers for every Saints game. Thanks to our friends over at DraftKings Sportsbook for the lines for the Saints at Falcons week 12 best bets.
NFL Week 12 Saints at Falcons best bets
Falcons game line +3
Until the Saints can prove otherwise, always take the points. On the year, they have only covered the spread twice in 10 games. Two times in the year is one of the worst in the league. Only the Carolina Panthers are worse. This game line currently hovers around one or two but tease it up a little as the game gets closer. Game line odds are very fluid, changing right up until kickoff. The matchup between these two rivals are always close and tough, and this week should be no different. Being able to put a field goal game line for either team is important as the kickers are likely to decide the outcome, especially with neither team truly trusting their quarterback.
Juwan Johnson over 2.5 receptions(+100)
Juwan Johnson has been slowly working back into the offense after an early-season injury. With Michael Thomas sidelined with an injury, Derek Carr will need to use other big-bodied receivers who get open in the middle of the field. That is where Johnson thrives. The matchup is juicy as well. The Falcons allow the second-most receptions to opposing tight ends per game in the NFL. This is likely due to playing zone-type coverages 75% of the time in the secondary. The Falcons still tackle well and do not allow many touchdowns, so look at the easy receptions prop to hit at even odds.
Tyler Allgeier over 35.5 rushing yards(-110)
The Saints’ rushing defense was once relied upon to be one of the league’s best. Much like the offense, those days have disappeared. The unit is not awful, but instead of being top five in the league they are very mediocre, allowing 114 yards per game. That works in the favor of the Falcons whose identity is tied to their rushing attack. They employ a dual threat of Bijan Robinson and Allgeier, attempting to keep both fresh for the entire game. Fantasy owners have been frustrated with Robinson’s touches as Allgeier continues to see double-digit production. That should continue this week against the Saints as the Falcons play hide-the-quarterback and just hand the ball off most of the game. Allgeier is the more bruising back and should see plenty of touches as the game wanes. Tyler Allgeier goes over 36 yards rushing against the Saints.
Long shot of the game
Neither team to reach 20 points(+340)
Gone are the days of Matt Ryan and Drew Brees dueling for NFC South supremacy. Scoring was once a luxury for both of these teams against one another. The modern iteration of both teams are now defined by their defenses and winning close games. The Falcons average 19 points per game this season while the Saints average 21. Divisional matchups are always tight in the south and that is likely to continue between these two teams vying for a divisional title once again. With both teams coming off of a bye, the defenses will be ready to hold off the struggling offenses. It would not be shocking for this to be a 16-13 game and hit this long shot.